Applying Reason to Extraterrestrials
Removing our biases about why extraterrestrials would reveal themselves to us
There is a lot of noise in the system about UFOs and the potential that recent sightings by the U.S. Navy is strong proof that extraterrestrial intelligence exists (ETI). Commentators are worried about ETIs whose aim is to attack us, take our resources, and subjugate us. A deeper, reasoned reflection on this implies that this scenario does not follow from a logical analysis. We can know much about an ETI even before they arrive. Such an analysis strongly implies that ETIs are benevolent if they decide to reveal themselves to us.
Much of our beliefs of ETIs are unfortunately colored by brilliant, good, and pedantic science fiction. Star Trek did apply sensible future extrapolations on technologies and wished for a peaceful Earth. Star Trek - The Next Generation became too dependent on technobabble to explain things though its best contribution was the Borg Collective, an implausible contender for a real ETI. The movies have been dominated by destructive themes sans Close Encounters of the Third Kind. There is palpable fear that these US Navy objects are testing our military to determine the best way to defeat them. A fresh and reasoned look at ETIs tells us that these destructive or Borg themes are low probability events.
Let us suppose ETIs exist. We do not assume they have visited us, only that they exist. We actually know a lot about them and we can see that with a top down approach.
We know from astronomical observations and theories developed over time to explain these observations, that these theories are valid throughout our galaxy. Our Sun is a classified as a G2V star based on its characteristics. We know that other G2V stars in our Galaxy are similar to the Sun. We see the periodic chart in supernovae remnants, other stars, and in asteroids. Precise measurements of the motion of stars, asteroids, and other objects show that General Relativity works in other parts of the galaxy as does Newtonian mechanics. Stars have magnetic fields as does our Galaxy. Any ETI lives in a physical space that has the same science processes as do other ETIs have in their physical space. This means that each ETI will derive the same science theories. All ETIs will, for example, determine that elements heavier than iron are created in supernovae explosions.
We also know that the solar system in which a given ETI resides was formed from the same physical laws as other ETIs. It appears every star has planets. There is a distribution of chemistry among our planets and so it is reasonable that there is a distribution of similar chemical processes at work in all solar systems (methane is methane everywhere).
The ETIs will have discovered the laws of Thermodynamics which includes the key concept of entropy. We can also assume they have discovered and presumable moved beyond the Navier-Stokes equation which are used for weather predictions and the movement of air flow around a wing. They will have discovered atoms, molecules, electrons, protons, and neutrons. We can assume they also know and understand quantum chromodynamics which describes is the theory of the strong interaction between quarks and gluons. We can assume they also their version of quantum electrodynamics and the Standard Model. It is also reasonable to assume that some ETIs have moved far beyond these theories.
It is impossible to say anything about their biology other than that their biology has to have been formed with chemical processes consistent with how our biology was formed and evolved.
Like us, they will have pondered why things work the way they do and found the need to develop some tool to help explain these phenomena. They must develop their version of mathematics to explain it just as we did. Their mathematics should differ from ours in symbols and nomenclature. The mathematics they developed has to describe the same physical phenomena as ours do. Their mathematics will need something like differential calculus otherwise they could not develop many of the explanations that we know to be true. The mathematical forms that the physical laws take can serve as a Rosetta Stone between us.
ETIs that can conceive of the above sciences and technologies can also ask questions like “why are we here?”, “why something from nothing”, and “what happens after death?”. As they have developed their sciences and technologies, it makes sense that they have also created their own forms of philosophy, art, music, and architecture.
We must also assume that if they exist, they have discovered things we have not. The should be a distribution of knowledge across the Galaxy.
A pattern we saw in the explorations starting in the 15th century was that superior civilizations visited inferior civilizations. The former had developed ships and technologies (e.g., a ruggedized clock to use at sea for longitude determination) that allowed them to circumnavigate the globe. The latter did not have these technologies were defeated by these advanced technologies. The motivation of the superior civilization was, as we know, to find greater riches in the new world. A secondary motivation was to convert everyone to Christianity. Let us consider the first motivation.
Let us now focus on that subset of ETIs in our Galaxy capable of visiting another ETI. It is clear from the above that there is nothing that the visited ETI has that the visiting ETI needs from them. Let focus on an ETI visiting Earth to create the argument that should hold for any ETI on ETI contact.
The ETIs would learn all they needed to know about us by monitoring all signals we emit (radio, TV, phone) and our data repositories that are accessible via the Internet. We can assume they are smart enough to get onto the Internet and gain access to what they want. A satellite located within a few million miles of Earth would suffice or perhaps in the Asteroid Belt.
The visiting ETIs will determine that places like the Moon, asteroids, and comets have copious amounts of the periodic table and key molecules like water, methane, diamonds, and silicon dioxide. These amounts will be in far greater amounts than the Earth has to offer. There is no reason for an ETI to plunder Earth because of the free and plentiful resources elsewhere. The ETIs could plunder the Moon and there is nothing we can do about it. The Moon is as free to them as an asteroid in the outer solar system.
It is difficult to determine how useful humans would be even as food sources or slave labor. ETIs should have created robotic versions of themselves with a concomitant artificial intelligence (in a future article I will argue why the ETI that visits us will be an AI and not the creator of the AI). Why try to enslave, govern, and train 7 billion prisoners when a handful of robots/AIs you have created will suffice?
Suppose they need a planet like ours with an atmosphere to set up forward operating bases to deal with their enemies. Their Diego Garcia. Why use resources to subjugate the Earth instead of the freedom that the Moon or Mars has to offer for operations? You might say they really want a place to live either for their military forces or their population. We need to accept the fact that an ETI that has a greater knowledge than ours will find exterminating us very straightforward.
Here is an easy way to destroy over 99% of the Earth's population with little effort. Destroy our ability to generate electricity. Without electricity they would destroy us by forcing us to live in pre-Civil War conditions for an extended period of time. Once 99% of us are gone they are free to use the Earth as they wish. This implies that the ETI wants our atmosphere. Was their evolution such that our atmosphere is perfect for them? If the ETI has to modify our atmosphere or live in domes, then why expend the resources to exterminate us? The Moon or Mars could work just as well in that case.
We as an intelligent species on a bountiful Earth have nothing to offer ETIs in terms of greater riches or resources needed to survive. In almost all respects there are better places. Our knowledge is necessarily a subset of theirs so there is nothing they can learn from us. Then why should they visit us?
A visitation based on the second above reason makes more sense. They come to give us something we do not have. Knowledge is one thing they can share with us and that would be welcomed. Their religion would be something else they would share and this would have the most disruptive impact to humanity than any other reason. We see that it is highly probable that an ETI will have developed philosophies consistent with their cultures and presumably their ideas are far more sophisticated than ours. Contemplating basic metaphysical questions could certainly lead them to establish organizing principles we call religion. Most of the religions here on Earth have as a basic tenet, which is evangelization. Most would welcome ETIs to Earth and attempt to convert them. Even Pope Francis said that if ETIs came to Earth, he would baptize them. But would ETIs need to be baptized?
A reason ETIs would come to Earth would be to evangelize us. It is this fact that would throw our world into chaos. For the sake of argument, assume that the ETIs come and say that the Catholics got it right and the rest of you need to convert. Only 1/7th of our world would be happy about that. The rest would treat the ETIs just as Catholics are treated today. It gets worse if the ETIs state that all ETIs they have encountered in our galaxy are Catholics. How does our world react? Chaotically. Substituting other religions for Catholicism in the above paragraph changes nothing. If the ETIs are atheists then the major religions will not give it up. They will view it as an opportunity to evangelize.
Part of this could be to share their science knowledge with us. We can hope that they have moved beyond our laws of physics and can share their successes with developing and proving a true law of quantum gravity, for example. We can hope that the problems we are trying to solve today around the creation of the universe and the true interpretation of quantum mechanics have been solved and they share that with us.
Overt evangelization I think is the danger of ETI visitation. The invalidation of all of the religions of the world or of all bar one is a clear impetus for old rivalries to come to the forefront and manifest themselves as physical actions. The Earth could become a violent place.
Let me close with this. I believe in ETIs. I do not believe we have been visited by them. I believe that the objects the US Navy has detected have a more terrestrial explanation. I believe ETIs have established philosophies and religions and I will say more about that in future articles.